Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Capitals 6 - Senators 3 Prognosis

The facts:
  • No one in the building or watching was surprised when the Sens jumped out to a 2 goal lead early. Everyone was surprised when they gave up 5 straight goals after that.
  • I said earlier that I expected Ray Emery to play in this game over Martin Gerber. I was right...sort of. Gerber got the start and relinquished it by giving up 3 goals on 8 shots. Goalie controversy in Ottawa perhaps?
  • 6 goals scored by the Capitals. Alex Ovechkin got two assists (ok, they were secondary assists, but they count for everyone).
  • The Heatley-Alfredsson-Spezza line didn't score a single goal. Heatley in particular has been held in check by Washington this year. Keeping the stars off the board is what DC needed to do.
  • Mike Green had 2 goals. He's now tied for the NHL's lead in goals scored by a defenseman. This man also needs a new contract.
  • Olaf Kolzig looked shaky in the beginning. Down the stretch, however he was solid and held the Caps through to the win. He was not superb, but solid. He needs to have a few more of these games if the Caps want to make a playoff push.
  • Speaking of *whispers* playoffs, the Caps are a mere 5 points out of the 8th spot in the East.
  • Alexander Semin went down with a tailbone injury (I'll pass on the chance to make an ass joke) and Tom Poti is ailing from the ever mysterious "upper-body injury." Both are day-to-day and both of their absences will be felt by the team.
  • Brooks Laich had a beauty of a goal that ended up being the game-winner. Don't look now but he's tied for 4th on the team in scoring (7 goals) and is 7th on the team in terms of points, with 12.
  • Michael Nylander got a goal to extend his goal scoring streak to 2 games. He could have had consecutive multi-goal games if he had simply pulled the trigger on the 3-on-1 instead of hooking off to make another pass. I love Michael, but he's gotta fire some more shots.
  • Viktor Kozlov got his first goal at VC and his first goal in a while. He's got 4 now this year.
  • Two players got into the double-digit end with their goals last night. Nylander's goal and Mike Green's two goals got them both to 10 goals on the year. They of course still trail the great #8 by 20 goals, as Ovie still sits at 30 on the year.
  • On another note concerning Ovechkin, his two assists put him at 50 points on the year, just 1 game shy of the mid-way mark of the season.
  • The Capitals FINALLY scored a 5-on-3 goal.
  • Players last night who had multi-point games: Nylander (1G, 1A), Ovechkin (2A), Green (2G, 1A), Boyd Gordon (1G, 1A) and Laich (1G, 1A)
Bottom Line: I don't know what sort of voodoo the Caps did to knock the Sens off again. Ottawa knew they had to come out blazing against DC and they did. I fully expected a knockout punch from the Senators after that first 5 minutes. But then Gerber turned back into a sieve and the Caps pulled ahead. After that, the Sens looked like the Capitals of old, basically folding down the stretch. But give credit to Washington, for persevering after falling behind early. Washington started off 2008 on a great not. Hopefully, they can continue the trend.

Prognosis: Positive
Game MVP: Mike Green (2G, 1A)

Sunday, December 30, 2007

Capitals 8 - Senators 6 Prognosis

The facts:
  • 14 goals total were scored. Neither starting goaltender got the hook last night. How in the world did that happen?
  • On the Washington end, the absence of Brent Johnson was probably the reason. Boudreau said he wanted to play the backup a little more. Letting in 6 goals on 22 shots (a .727 save percentage) is more evidence for that move. Maybe Olie Kolzig should come on in relief a little more like he did in Pittsburgh?
  • Somewhere Ray Emery is smiling. 7 goals on 29 shots (.758 save percentage) is more leverage for Martin Gerber to grab some pine. I'm guessing when the Sens come to DC on New Year's Day, Emery will get the nod.
  • There were 14 goals scored and only 52 shots on goal total. That means the goalies combined for a ghastly .730 save percentage. Ouch.
  • The Senators are good. They're very good. They're not as good at home for some reason (12-6-2 vs. 13-3-0 on the road). Last night, they didn't look like the best team in the East though.
  • The Sens will probably end up as the #1 seed in the East. They'd better hope the Caps don't crawl into the playoffs as the #8 seed because right now Ottawa has no answer for DC.
  • Alex Ovechkin had his first 4 goal game and his first 5 point game in his career. How did it take this long.
  • Ovechkin is now just 4 points behind Cindy "the Kid" Crosby. He has more assists (18) than Crosby has goals (16) this year.
  • Ovechkin is now just 2 goals behind Ilya Kovalchuk for the league lead. He has 30 goals in 39 games.
  • Ovechkin is on pace to score 63 goals this year.
  • Ovechkin is now the leading goal scorer over the last 3 years (since he entered the league).
  • Alex Ovechkin is the man.
  • If you had told me before the game a Senator would get a hat-trick, I'd have believed it. I didn't think it would be Mike Fisher.
  • 14 goals scored, Dany Heatley didn't have one. Think that might have affected the outcome?
  • Little note to Michael Nylander: that is why you shoot more. Scoring two goals is fun isn't it?
  • 6 defensemen (3 from each team) had assists tonight. Think they'd trade them in if they could take a couple goals off the board?
  • Welcome to the new NHL: 14 goals scored, 14 penalties taken.
  • Donald Brashear had a fight in his second straight game. He's still the NHL's middleweight champion after knocking Chris Neil around.
  • Alex Ovechkin is the man. Why doesn't the man have a new contract?
  • Niklas Backstrom is just 7 points behind Patrick Kane for the rookie scoring title.
  • Let's not forget Alexander Semin had a 3 point night (1 G, 2 A). So did Niklas Backstrom by the same token. Backis also took 2 penalties.
  • Daniel Alfredsson was 1 goal away from the trick. He made Kolzig look silly on that short-handed penalty shot goal he scored. Probably watched the shootout game against Detroit.
  • Alfredsson was the only man to score in the first two periods. Oh captain my captain...
  • He also had a 3 point game.
  • Did I mention Ovechkin is the man and should have a new contract?
  • Mike Fisher was one empty net goal from getting the full basket of goals. He had a shortie, a PP goal and an even strength goal.
  • Ovechkin was just one shortie from getting the basket as well.
  • One last time: Ovechkin is the man.
Bottom line: When Gary Bettman envisioned the new NHL, this is probably the game he was dreaming of. Lots of goals, lots of excitement, not a blowout, and a down to the wire game. One of the league's great young players finished the year by scoring a ton of goals (any guesses as to who it is?) while an incredibly savvy team never stopped battling. The Caps offense should get full marks for putting up the kind of goals they did on Ottawa and even the D should get a nod for only allowing Ottawa 22 shots. This game could have been a 3-2 struggle, but instead it was probably one of the more exciting games of the year.

Prognosis: Positive
Game MVP: Alex Ovechkin (4 goals, 1 assist)

Friday, December 28, 2007

Peng-whiners 4 - Caps 3 (OT) Prognosis

The facts:

  • This was another case of a game where the Capitals basically dominated the game but for a few brief moments. In those brief moments, the other team managed to capitalize and drag us back down. 1 point escaped us and it wasn't because Pitt was better than we are, but rather because they scored when we let our guard down.
  • Brucey's system is working incredibly well. The Penguin Scum had basically no running room all night. The homers getting on the Crosbettes made me smile. The boos from the fans were deserved, because they recognized their team was getting thoroughly outplayed. Were it not for two $#!tty deflections off Milan "Lurch" Jurcina, this game is a 3-1 Capitals win.
  • Cindy Crosby was the number one star of the game. He had two assists. So did Niklas Backstrom (the number 2 star of the game). Crosby got one of his patented secondary assists (aka an "I'll-let-the-other-guy-do-all-the-work" assist). The second was on the OT winner, but it was not a set-up but rather more of a broken play that went $#!ttsburgh's way. Just FYI, both of Backstrom's assists were primaries.
  • I'll take Ovies goal to Crosbaby's two assists any day. And if Ovechkin isn't hurt for most of the 3rd period and all of OT, this game has a completely different take. You can't tell me that losing him didn't take some air out of the player's sails.
  • Can't hang this one on Olie. Godzilla played well in relief basically pitching a shutout until the Jurcina "goal." He made some critical stops as the game was winding down to get the game into OT.
  • Brashear vs. Laraque Round 2: Laraque - 0 points, 1 fight, -1 +/-, and 9:52 of ice time. Brashear - 1 goal, 1 fight, -1 +/-, 9:31 of ice time. Brashear wins this round easily. And that was a sweet goal.
  • Brian Pothier is the new Jeff Schultz, 3 goals and 4 points in his last 5 games. We gotta start breaking other defensemen's thumbs.
  • The Power Play was anemic. These guys gotta learn to shoot more (looking at you Nylander) and crash the net to get the garbage goals they got against Tampa.
  • The PK looked great...until the very end.
  • Laich has to win that face-off, Jurcina has to block that shot. If they do either, it's even strength, 2 minutes left and the Scum is in panic mode.
  • Gordon or Backstrom (both with faceoff % over 50 last night) should have taken that critical face-off.
  • I didn't see the Morrisonn penalty and no replay was shown. If it was legit, than shame on him for allowing the Whiners to get a shot at life. I wouldn't be surprised if the refs called a ticky-tacky penalty to give Crosby another shot. Uncle Gary works his magic again.
  • A 2 goal lead is always better than a 1 goal lead. The Caps have only themselves to blame for sitting back in the 3rd period and not trying to lead the knockout blow.
  • Evegeni Malkin was a better player than Cindy was last night. He got close to scoring on a number of chances. The fact that he doesn't get rewarded for that and the Crybaby does stinks.
  • The above fact might be due to the fact that the Caps defense basically gave Cindy no running room all night.
  • When Jurcina dropped the girl "on his wallet" (Joe B's words, not mine) I laughed. Hard. I want to see teams do this more often. It looks like Uncle Gary's been spreading it around the league not to hit the golden child. Other teams take a lot of liberties at Ovechkin, why not bury the Kid into the ice. Well...it might be because Crosby never hits anyone whereas Ovechkin plays with more intensity.
  • Could someone please tell Ovechkin if he's gonna pass to anyone, don't make it Viktor Kozlov. The guy hasn't scored a goal this decade it seems (actually it's 3 on the year, and 19 assists, but a lot of those are of the BS Crosby variety).
  • That said, sit Kozlov. It helped Pothier regain what he once had in Ottawa. Maybe Kozy sitting a few games will have the same affect. And recall Laing again. That guy played with such heart and intensity, he deserves to be a regular or at least semi-regular.
  • A lot of people are down on Fleischmann, but his fore checking was pretty good last game. That said, he only had 1 shot last game and has only recorded 1 point in the previous 5 games. He could also get some benefit from getting a night in the press box.
  • Having Gonchar score the game winner is adding insult to insult. Having Crosby get the only assist, just makes me physically sick.
  • Since Ovechkin has entered the league, we are 1-7-2 against the Scum. Does that make anyone else want to vomit?
  • If we had this same result against any other team, we got a point and couldn't seal the deal. Since it's against the Crosbette's it just sucks because now the rivalry is under scrutiny and we have to deal with obnoxious Pens fans (who don't have that much to jeer about considering they're a full 7 *gasp* points ahead of us in 8th place).
Bottom line: my dad said last night "at least they got a point." True, but 2 points is always better than 1. The opportunity to leapfrog the 'Ning out of the basement in the East and get closer to the 8th place cut-off (we'd have been 4 points behind $#!ttsburgh rather than 7 behind Barfallo if we'd have won this game in regulation) was there and we didn't get it. Ottawa is ahead and it's another "gotta win" game. There are some games that mean more to players and some which mean more to fans. This was one that fits both bills and its stinks to let a team as hated as this one off the hook.

Prognosis: Negative
Game MVP: Niklas Backstrom (2 assists)

Thursday, December 6, 2007

December 6 Word of the Day

Expectations

Tomorrow night will be the first real time that Capitals fans will get to see Bruce Boudreau's fabled "system" which won him a Calder Cup in Hershey two years ago. Boudreau has been very hush-hush about this new system, holding as many details about his system in and being as vague as possible to prevent other coaches from preparing against him (no Bill Belichick in the NHL eh?). So tomorrow night will be Boudreau's first real crack at making a stance in the NHL.

Now Capitals fans have been thrilled with the 3-2-1 start Boudreau has had (set in comparison to the 5-9-1 start) but he hasn't really had a chance to implement his system in the players. They've still been doing what former coach Glen Hanlon taught them (dump the puck, pray you get it, hit no one). Boudreau is said to have a more aggressive style, which is something Caps fans have been longing for a while. And the team has certainly been playing more aggressively and better under Boudreau than Hanlon, but there's no reason to be too optimistic.

Now, Boudreau has had some success in hockey previously to be sure. I mean he made the Calder Cup finals twice and won once in the last two years (a bit like winning the Arena Football Championship) so his resume is solid. But the problem is that Boudreau is the third consecutive coach to make his NHL head coaching debut in Washington (1 winning season in 5 years, notice the trend?). Now everyone had these same sorts of expectations when Bruce Cassidy took the reigns in Washington. And for a while we were enthralled with him as the bench-box. I mean, he was named one of DC's most handsome men (that gorgeous hair...those dreamy eyes...). But then the team started winning, Cassidy started riding the vets, and pretty soon we wanted him gone (the way his voice peakes when he insults the player's families...).

And then we had the same sorts of expectations for Glen Hanlon. I mean, after Cassidy, we were willing to take ANYONE (Randy Carlyle?). And we gave ol' Hugs a pass for a few years because we were rebuilding, we didn't have anyone on our team who could compete in the NHL (not named Alex). Finally, he answered the question that the ESPN pundits had been asking: what will he do with a team that on paper is legit? (The answer: nothing). So Hanlon was gone.
So Capitals fans before you all start nominating ol' Gabby for the Jack Adams award, remember it is early in his reign, he's getting his feet wet, and this team could regress to where they were in November. So don't raise those expectations...

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Panthers 4 - Capitals 3: Word of the Day...

Chant

Last night, the Capitals lost their 4th straight game, their 3rd in 4 nights, to the lowly Florida Panthers. The same Florida Panthers who were 2-8-1 on the road entering this game and basically played it automatically against Washington. They jumped to the lead 1-0 on a David Booth redirection early. While Brooks Laich struck back with a shorthanded goal, the Cats then scored the go-ahead goal with less than a minute left in the 1st. From there, it was all FLA who improved the lead to 4-1 in the 3rd. The Caps made another late but futile charge and made it a 4-3 loss, but this game was far more lopsided than the score indicates.
The highlight of the night, however, was when the fan's finally turned hostile. A chant of "fire Hanlon" along with a melody of boos began to drift down towards the ice near the end of the game. And honestly, how could you blame the fans? The Capitals played like a team that had been pumped full of vallium before the game and just wanted to go to sleep, not a team that was in last place in the NHL and clawing their way back to respectability.
Afterwards, the players defended Hanlon. In particular, Olie Kolzig said:

"I'm sick of being asked about coaching changes. That's the furthest thing that needs to happen here. How many shocks do you need? I don't know."

While it's admirable that Olie wants to stick behind his coach, the game last night should have crystallized everything for the front office on Hanlon's ineptitude. But for posterities sake, let's take a look at the facts for Hanlon's eviction:
  • Despite acquiring Viktor Kozlov, Michael Nylander and Tom Poti to improve the power play, they have only a 14.6% effectiveness, 23rd in the league. The power play continues to consist of abysmal passing, holding the puck while waiting for one of the defensemen to move and open up a shooter (because they don't move at all) and sloppy entering and possession. I saw the Caps dump-and-chase on a 5-on-3...that's bad.
  • Thier 2.30 goals scored per game is the 3rd worst in the league, despite having the great scoring threats of Ovechkin, Nylander, Backstrom and Kozlov (I leave Semin out because he was injured). In 7 of their 20 games this year, they've scored 1 goal or less. In 14 of those 20, they've scored 2 or less.
  • Speaking of Ovechkin, he has more than 28% of the team's goals. He has 13 on the year. Add up the number of goals scored by the 3 goals directly behind him, Nylander, Tomas Fleischmann and Laich, and you've equaled his 13 goals.
  • They have a 1-10-1 record when surrenduring the first goal, a 1-7-0 record after trailing after the 1st period and a 0-12-1 record when trailing entering the 3rd. Basically, they fall apart once they fall behind.
So fans, go ahead and chant. Please. Wear your paper bags and continue to boo this team. They need a shot in the arm, a reality check or whatever you want to call it. They need to play with some pride, some passion and heart. Maybe they will once they realize how it looks from the outsider's perspective. Or maybe the owner will respond to the complaints of the customers (the fans). Maybe we can turn the sinking ship around. Just chant...

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

A JET Sermon...PIMS




Welcome, welcome all you sinners. Welcome back from that sit in the "sin-bin" which happens to be the topic of our sermon today, one of the greatest sins a hockey player can commit: taking penalties.

Now there are many misconceptions about the PIM stat. Many GMs, coaches and fans love a guy with a high count in this area. It implies that the player is tough, an enforcer, a nostalgic slice of that old-tyme hockey that fans hold near and dear to their hearts. But what does the stat really mean?

To answer this question, my children, first let's examine how a PIM is committed. However you want to gussy it up, or articulate it, a penalty is always the result of a defensive mistake. That mistake might not have been committed by the player assessed the penalty. The mistake might not have been an action that directly lead to the penalty, but somewhere along the line some mistake was made by someone that caused another player to commit a penalty. Now let us talk about all the types of penalties there are.

There are four very simple types of penalties, there are 1) mental errors 2) accidental penalties 3) retaliatory/matching penalties 4) the rare "good" penalties.

The first is the most common and worst penalty. It occurs when one player does something stupid, to be frank, and takes a penalty. It could be a two handed slash across the wrist, running into the goaltender or flipping the puck out of play. Either way it implies that the player consciously knew that his actions would result in a penalty, but did it anyway. Additionally, the timing and place of a penalty can make it a mental error. Any penalty taken on the penalty kill is the stupidest and worst act to commit. On a 5-on-3, most any team can score a goal if they have enough time. Taking penalties on the power play, or in the offensive zone kill a team's momentum. Anything after the whistle is, again, stupid because the now your penalty had no bearing on the play and is more likely to be called. Donald Brashear's penalty against the Lightning is a prime example of a stupid penalty: in the offensive zone, on the power play, after the play ends, in plain view of the refs.

The second type of penalty is known as a "sin by ignorance" but ignorance is no excuse. Sticking your twig between your opponent's legs (please don't laugh children, or I shall smite thee with a "game misconduct" and send you back to your box) and he falls, its your mistake. Players must always be in control of their stick and skates. Players should always be aware of where other people are on the ice, whether or not hitting this player would constitute charging, or when to change, a mistake is a mistake, but it still hurts. As mentioned before, penalties in the offensive zone or ill-timed are more crippling that simple accidental penalties.

The retaliatory or matching minor will result in a penalty, but should (hopefully) not result in a penalty kill. While this doesn't put your team at a necessary disadvantage, in terms of man power, it could if your player is undermanned because of injuries or penalties, or if the player you have matched penalties with is of a lesser skill than yourself. If Brashear and Ilya Kovlachuk both take matching penalties, who comes out on top? Why the Capitals who have just sacrificed one of their less talented players to take out Atlanta's most talented. Note to all those, however, who think retaliating against your fellow man is not folly. Most often, the man who strikes back is dubbed the sinner and not the other. So retaliation could put your brothers shorthanded and it might be best to turn the other cheek and forgive the other's sins.

Finally, there is the instance of the rare "good" penalties or "sins for the greater good." The long and short of this is that this is any sort of penalty which directly prevents a goal from being scored and goal is not scored on the ensuing power play/penalty shot. These are rare as it requires many conditions to be true to make a sin selfless. To commit an act which either prevents a goal or a chance for a goal is admirable. However, should that act be in vain, it is a penalty like any other.

So other than the obvious bad consequences of a penalty kill, what are the other bad consequence of penalties? For one, the most obvious, is that it puts more of a strain on the penalty killers, often a group of 6-8 who now must play 2 full minutes together. And if the sinner happens to be one of these "chosen ones" he puts more of an onus on the others. Secondly, it gives the other team extended time in the offensive zone and momentum. Unless their power play is completely shut down, the team will record a few quality chances or shots which could give them a boost. Thirdly, it (usually) keeps your star players off the ice while putting their stars on the ice. Any excuse to play the other team's stars more against a ragged penalty kill unit while keeping your scoring threats off the ice is great. Finally, the "last protector"/your goaltender is now forced to keep you in the game. Putting any sort of pressure on this "gatekeeper" will lead you to ruin.

So ultimately, my children, we see that taking a penalty is always an act of atrocity. Now our "beloved children," the Capitals are 6th worst in times short handed (89 on the year) and thus they suffer dearly. Of the teams ahead of them, only Detroit has a winning record and Carolina is the only other team in the bottom 10 which has a winning record. So we can see, children, how penalties can hurt a team's chances of getting that elusive "W."

Now onto those sinners in our midst, children: those who have more than 10 PIMs on the beloved Washington Capitals. 11 players have more than 10 PIMs this year. Of those 11, only 3 have plus ratings (ironically the 3 with the most PIMs), but two of them are +1 (Brashear and Erskine) while Brian Pothier has a +6 with 18 PIMs. Only 4 of those players are mulit-goal scorers (Nylander-5, Green-3, Laich and Clark-2). And only 1 of them has more than 10 points (Nylander 16). Green is next closest with 7 points.

So for the rest of these sinners repent your sins! Play solid defense, refrain from taking meaningless penalties and one day perhaps you will be like the saintly New York Islanders who, despite having one of the least talented teams (as touted by the pundits in the pre-season) have the fewest Times Shorthanded and are thus 4 games above .500!!!

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

5 Game Benchmark: Games 11-15

06-07 Record: 3-2-0 (6 points)
07-08 Record: 1-3-1 (3 points)

06-07 Record Total/Projection: 6-5-4 (16 points)/33-27-22 (88 points)
07-08 Record Total/Projection: 5-9-1 (11 points)/27-49-5 (59 points)

06-07 Goals For (Period/Total): 16/47
07-08 Goals For (Period/Total): 10/34

06-07 Goals Against (Period/Total): 17/50
07-08 Goals Against (Period/Total): 13/42

06-07 Shots For/Game: 27.2 (408 Total)
07-08 Shots For/Game: 28.9 (433 Total)

06-07 Shots Against/Game: 36.0 (540 Total)
07-08 Shots Against/Game: 29.8 (447 Total)

06-07 Power Play Efficiency: 16.9% (13 goals, 77 opportunities)
07-08 Power Play Efficiency: 15.7% (11 goals, 70 opportunities)

06-07 Penalty Kill Efficiency: 83.7% (14 goals, 86 opportunities)
07-08 Penalty Kill Efficiency: 80.0% (16 goals, 80 opportunities)

All I can say is thank God those 5 games are over. As ugly a stretch as could be seen, but there is still something to look for. This team still has as many problems as last year, but some are easily corrected. The goals should go up once shots start going through and the PK should improve as they take less penalties.

Thrashers 2 - Capitals 1 (OT): Brought to You by the Number

1

Obviously it was the number of points the Caps managed to escape with and the number of goals they were able to score. But the number 1 also holds many other significances in terms of continuing trends throughout the season...

- 1 more game in which Alex Ovechkin didn't record a point (that's 2 straight and 3 of his last 5).
- 1 more game in which the Caps effectively dominated the first period (16 shots for, 6 against, went to the power play 3 times) but did not win
- 1 more game where the momentum of the first period was erased by a lazy second period (7 shots for vs. 13 against, 4 times shorthanded)
- 1 more game in which they went shorthanded more than 5 times (the had 6 TS) and lost the game
- 1 more game they lost despite outshooting the opponent (32 shots to Atlanta's 31)
- 1 more game where they ran into a hot goaltender (who has Ondrej Pavelec on their fantasy team)

So granted, the team got a point, but there's no reason to be encouraged. They only got an OT loss against a team that was tied with them for last in the Eastern Conference and is now ahead. Now, as the Peerless informs us, all is not lost. The playoffs are not gone, but with Ottawa on the horizon, this Caps team needs to correct these consistent problems if they want to avoid another year of April golf