Panthers 4 - Capitals 3: Word of the Day...

Chant

Last night, the Capitals lost their 4th straight game, their 3rd in 4 nights, to the lowly Florida Panthers. The same Florida Panthers who were 2-8-1 on the road entering this game and basically played it automatically against Washington. They jumped to the lead 1-0 on a David Booth redirection early. While Brooks Laich struck back with a shorthanded goal, the Cats then scored the go-ahead goal with less than a minute left in the 1st. From there, it was all FLA who improved the lead to 4-1 in the 3rd. The Caps made another late but futile charge and made it a 4-3 loss, but this game was far more lopsided than the score indicates.
The highlight of the night, however, was when the fan's finally turned hostile. A chant of "fire Hanlon" along with a melody of boos began to drift down towards the ice near the end of the game. And honestly, how could you blame the fans? The Capitals played like a team that had been pumped full of vallium before the game and just wanted to go to sleep, not a team that was in last place in the NHL and clawing their way back to respectability.
Afterwards, the players defended Hanlon. In particular, Olie Kolzig said:

"I'm sick of being asked about coaching changes. That's the furthest thing that needs to happen here. How many shocks do you need? I don't know."

While it's admirable that Olie wants to stick behind his coach, the game last night should have crystallized everything for the front office on Hanlon's ineptitude. But for posterities sake, let's take a look at the facts for Hanlon's eviction:

• Despite acquiring Viktor Kozlov, Michael Nylander and Tom Poti to improve the power play, they have only a 14.6% effectiveness, 23rd in the league. The power play continues to consist of abysmal passing, holding the puck while waiting for one of the defensemen to move and open up a shooter (because they don't move at all) and sloppy entering and possession. I saw the Caps dump-and-chase on a 5-on-3...that's bad.
  
• Thier 2.30 goals scored per game is the 3rd worst in the league, despite having the great scoring threats of Ovechkin, Nylander, Backstrom and Kozlov (I leave Semin out because he was injured). In 7 of their 20 games this year, they've scored 1 goal or less. In 14 of those 20, they've scored 2 or less.
  
• Speaking of Ovechkin, he has more than 28% of the team's goals. He has 13 on the year. Add up the number of goals scored by the 3 goals directly behind him, Nylander, Tomas Fleischmann and Laich, and you've equaled his 13 goals.
  
• They have a 1-10-1 record when surrenduring the first goal, a 1-7-0 record after trailing after the 1st period and a 0-12-1 record when trailing entering the 3rd. Basically, they fall apart once they fall behind.

So fans, go ahead and chant. Please. Wear your paper bags and continue to boo this team. They need a shot in the arm, a reality check or whatever you want to call it. They need to play with some pride, some passion and heart. Maybe they will once they realize how it looks from the outsider's perspective. Or maybe the owner will respond to the complaints of the customers (the fans). Maybe we can turn the sinking ship around. Just chant...

A JET Sermon...PIMS

Welcome, welcome all you sinners. Welcome back from that sit in the "sin-bin" which happens to be the topic of our sermon today, one of the greatest sins a hockey player can commit: taking penalties.

Now there are many misconceptions about the PIM stat. Many GMs, coaches and fans love a guy with a high count in this area. It implies that the player is tough, an enforcer, a nostalgic slice of that old-tyme hockey that fans hold near and dear to their hearts. But what does the stat really mean?

To answer this question, my children, first let's examine how a PIM is committed. However you want to gussy it up, or articulate it, a penalty is always the result of a defensive mistake. That mistake might not have been committed by the player assessed the penalty. The mistake might not have been an action that directly lead to the penalty, but somewhere along the line some mistake was made by someone that caused another player to commit a penalty. Now let us talk about all the types of penalties there are.

There are four very simple types of penalties, there are 1) mental errors 2) accidental penalties 3) retaliatory/matching penalties 4) the rare "good" penalties.

The first is the most common and worst penalty. It occurs when one player does something stupid, to be frank, and takes a penalty. It could be a two handed slash across the wrist, running into the goaltender or flipping the puck out of play. Either way it implies that the player consciously knew that his actions would result in a penalty, but did it anyway. Additionally, the timing and place of a penalty can make it a mental error. Any penalty taken on the penalty kill is the stupidest and worst act to commit. On a 5-on-3, most any team can score a goal if they have enough time. Taking penalties on the power play, or in the offensive zone kill a team's momentum. Anything after the whistle is, again, stupid because the now your penalty had no bearing on the play and is more likely to be called. Donald Brashear's penalty against the Lightning is a prime example of a stupid penalty: in the offensive zone, on the power play, after the play ends, in plain view of the refs.

The second type of penalty is known as a "sin by ignorance" but ignorance is no excuse. Sticking your twig between your opponent's legs (please don't laugh children, or I shall smite thee with a "game misconduct" and send you back to your box) and he falls, its your mistake. Players must always be in control of their stick and skates. Players should always be aware of where other people are on the ice, whether or not hitting this player would constitute charging, or when to change, a mistake is a mistake, but it still hurts. As mentioned before, penalties in the offensive zone or ill-timed are more crippling that simple accidental penalties.

The retaliatory or matching minor will result in a penalty, but should (hopefully) not result in a penalty kill. While this doesn't put your team at a necessary disadvantage, in terms of man power, it could if your player is undermanned because of injuries or penalties, or if the player you have matched penalties with is of a lesser skill than yourself. If Brashear and Ilya Kovlachuk both take matching penalties, who comes out on top? Why the Capitals who have just sacrificed one of their less talented players to take out Atlanta's most talented. Note to all those, however, who think retaliating against your fellow man is not folly. Most often, the man who strikes back is dubbed the sinner and not the other. So retaliation could put your brothers shorthanded and it might be best to turn the other cheek and forgive the other's sins.

Finally, there is the instance of the rare "good" penalties or "sins for the greater good." The long and short of this is that this is any sort of penalty which directly prevents a goal from being scored and goal is not scored on the ensuing power play/penalty shot. These are rare as it requires many conditions to be true to make a sin selfless. To commit an act which either prevents a goal or a chance for a goal is admirable. However, should that act be in vain, it is a penalty like any other.

So other than the obvious bad consequences of a penalty kill, what are the other bad consequence of penalties? For one, the most obvious, is that it puts more of a strain on the penalty killers, often a group of 6-8 who now must play 2 full minutes together. And if the sinner happens to be one of these "chosen ones" he puts more of an onus on the others. Secondly, it gives the other team extended time in the offensive zone and momentum. Unless their power play is completely shut down, the team will record a few quality chances or shots which could give them a boost. Thirdly, it (usually) keeps your star players off the ice while putting their stars on the ice. Any excuse to play the other team's stars more against a ragged penalty kill unit while keeping your scoring threats off the ice is great. Finally, the "last protector"/your goaltender is now forced to keep you in the game. Putting any sort of pressure on this "gatekeeper" will lead you to ruin.

So ultimately, my children, we see that taking a penalty is always an act of atrocity. Now our "beloved children," the Capitals are 6th worst in times short handed (89 on the year) and thus they suffer dearly. Of the teams ahead of them, only Detroit has a winning record and Carolina is the only other team in the bottom 10 which has a winning record. So we can see, children, how penalties can hurt a team's chances of getting that elusive "W."

Now onto those sinners in our midst, children: those who have more than 10 PIMs on the beloved Washington Capitals. 11 players have more than 10 PIMs this year. Of those 11, only 3 have plus ratings (ironically the 3 with the most PIMs), but two of them are +1 (Brashear and Erskine) while Brian Pothier has a +6 with 18 PIMs. Only 4 of those players are mulit-goal scorers (Nylander-5, Green-3, Laich and Clark-2). And only 1 of them has more than 10 points (Nylander 16). Green is next closest with 7 points.

So for the rest of these sinners repent your sins! Play solid defense, refrain from taking meaningless penalties and one day perhaps you will be like the saintly New York Islanders who, despite having one of the least talented teams (as touted by the pundits in the pre-season) have the fewest Times Shorthanded and are thus 4 games above .500!!!

5 Game Benchmark: Games 11-15

06-07 Record: 3-2-0 (6 points)
07-08 Record: 1-3-1 (3 points)

06-07 Record Total/Projection: 6-5-4 (16 points)/33-27-22 (88 points)
07-08 Record Total/Projection: 5-9-1 (11 points)/27-49-5 (59 points)

06-07 Goals For (Period/Total): 16/47
07-08 Goals For (Period/Total): 10/34

06-07 Goals Against (Period/Total): 17/50
07-08 Goals Against (Period/Total): 13/42

06-07 Shots For/Game: 27.2 (408 Total)
07-08 Shots For/Game: 28.9 (433 Total)

06-07 Shots Against/Game: 36.0 (540 Total)
07-08 Shots Against/Game: 29.8 (447 Total)

06-07 Power Play Efficiency: 16.9% (13 goals, 77 opportunities)
07-08 Power Play Efficiency: 15.7% (11 goals, 70 opportunities)

06-07 Penalty Kill Efficiency: 83.7% (14 goals, 86 opportunities)
07-08 Penalty Kill Efficiency: 80.0% (16 goals, 80 opportunities)

All I can say is thank God those 5 games are over. As ugly a stretch as could be seen, but there is still something to look for. This team still has as many problems as last year, but some are easily corrected. The goals should go up once shots start going through and the PK should improve as they take less penalties.

Thrashers 2 - Capitals 1 (OT): Brought to You by the Number

1

Obviously it was the number of points the Caps managed to escape with and the number of goals they were able to score. But the number 1 also holds many other significances in terms of continuing trends throughout the season...

- 1 more game in which Alex Ovechkin didn't record a point (that's 2 straight and 3 of his last 5).
- 1 more game in which the Caps effectively dominated the first period (16 shots for, 6 against, went to the power play 3 times) but did not win
- 1 more game where the momentum of the first period was erased by a lazy second period (7 shots for vs. 13 against, 4 times shorthanded)
- 1 more game in which they went shorthanded more than 5 times (the had 6 TS) and lost the game
- 1 more game they lost despite outshooting the opponent (32 shots to Atlanta's 31)
- 1 more game where they ran into a hot goaltender (who has Ondrej Pavelec on their fantasy team)

So granted, the team got a point, but there's no reason to be encouraged. They only got an OT loss against a team that was tied with them for last in the Eastern Conference and is now ahead. Now, as the Peerless informs us, all is not lost. The playoffs are not gone, but with Ottawa on the horizon, this Caps team needs to correct these consistent problems if they want to avoid another year of April golf

Capitals (5-8-0) @ Hurricanes (8-3-3): 3 Stats to Remember...

1. -5

The goal differential in the 2nd period, the Capitals' undoubtedly weakest period. They score the least goals and allow the most in this period. Their 8 goals for in the second period are tied for 2nd worst in the lead (the Rangers have the worst with 3) and while their 13 goals for are in the median of the league, this is still the period that seems to be the Caps' "make-or-break" time.
Even worse for the Caps is the fact that the 'Canes have only allowed 10 goals in the second period and scored 19. The middle stanza for the Caps could be the most critical, and possibly the most painful.

2. 20

Points by Rod Brind'Amour this year. Brind'Amour has scored on 15.8% of his shots this year and is number one in the NHL in terms of assists.
But Brind'Amour has scorched the Caps in his career. 36 goals and 74 points in over 80 games against Washington in his career. Even worse, he has 7 game winning goals. The Caps' top defensive pairing (Jurcina and Morrisonn) needs to keep him off the scoresheet.

3. 0

The number of wins both when the Caps trail after 2 periods of play and the number of wins the Caps have when going shorthanded more than 5 times. That means consistent early play and discipline will be the keys to winning this game.
Consequently, when the Capitals are leading after 2 periods (has happened 4 times) they have never lost. Similarly, they are 4-1-0 when they have been shorthanded 5 times or less. These stats will be important to remember for the Capitals.

Washington Capitals Player of the Week: Alex Ovechkin

Games: 3

Goals: 3
Assists: 3
Points: 6
+/-: +5
PIMs: 0

Honorable Mentions:
Michael Nylander:
Games: 3
Goals: 2
Assists: 3
+/-: +4
PIMs: 2

Mike Green:
Games: 3
Goals: 2
Assists: 0
Points: 2
+/-: +1
PIMs: 4

Viktor Kozlov
Games:3
Goals: 0
Assists: 3
Points: 3
+/-: +4
PIMs: 0